Analysis You Can Actually Trust

MARKET BRIEF | MAY 20, 2026 The tape is not generous right now. The VIX sits at 18.06 — not in crisis, but not complacent either. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.67%, a 16-month high, while the 2-year anchors at 4.09%, leaving a spread of just +58 basis points. The yield curve is technically uninverted, but the compression tells you everything about how much the bond market trusts this expansion. More critically, the Fed's December meeting now carries a 50% market

Where the portfolio stands The TFV Capital virtual $100K portfolio closed the third trading day at $107,786.95, up 7.79% from the $100K opening line and up 10.52% on the equity book in three sessions. All five opening positions are green: ALAB +11.89%, MU +25.86%, VRT +5.93%, CEG +3.16%, PWR +4.65%. Cash on hand: $36,131. Honest read: this is beta, not alpha. Five names, one theme — AI infrastructure buildout. The whole HBM/data-center tape moved together. Time to build the s

Every time an economy slows, governments reach for the same second lever: a massive fiscal stimulus package sold as growth that will pay for itself. The historical record — from Japan's thirty-year experiment to the post-COVID G4 comparison — tells a different story.